蓝色灵韵

本次华东医药党课邀请了浙大经济学院的院长史晋川教授，做基于国际金融风暴背景分析。在公司总工的极力推荐下，我也慕名参加了本次党课（至今只参加过3次党课，缺勤率达70%以上：p）。

史教授讲座的重点放在了中国宏观经济的增长趋势、宏观经济运行的近期态势以及浙江经济发展趋势。

中国宏观经济经历了3个阶段：

1978-1997        经济发展缓慢，主要是改善温饱问题

1998-2002        吃穿用的需求上涨缓慢，新的消费需求没有释放

2002年下半年-2020年  新的消费需求（住、行、高等教育、旅游、高科技产品）迅速增长

史教授以浙江的高速公路为例子，讲到2002年之前浙江只有1条高速公路，2002年后至今，已经开通了15条高速公路。确实是一个让人吃惊的数字啊，而这个数字也与浙江经济的高速发展是紧密相关的。Based on what we have seen ，after the 2002 year，Mobil phone，MP3，Computer，PSP，PDA，study aboard etc. are becoming more and more common to us，but it was never be a dream when we were at 1990^th 。

Professor SHI’s  statement ，according to China's current macro-economic situation，is that China’s economy will recovery at the end of 2009 ，the tread much like “U”. Professor SHI stated that this Economic Crisis are not as same as 1929’s。First，it hasn’t hit the bottom of the world. Since every country has flock together to face the problem ，but 1929’s only American stand up to fight with the crisis。Second，it was start from some banks (eg. Lehman brothers, Morgan Stanley ),not the whole systems. Third ,it influence only the import and export. From the index of Nov.2008 we have seen that GDP, CPI, import, export, tax all decreased straightly, professor SHI said “转折性下行意味经济探底”. From Jan.2009 we have seen although some indexes are still decrease but some of them have fell slowly .

What professor SHI had said and we couldn’t agree more is that Chinese government shouldn’t do noting but encourage us to consume .If everyone is worried about the old-age pension how could he spent so much money to stimulate economy. So our government should insurance people’s life and improve long-term fundamentals to get its economy recover.